Orbital environment
Sentinel Protocol V3.2.1 // Now Available

Price the Risk
You Can't See.

1.2 million lethal non-trackable objects orbit Earth right now. None of them appear in traditional risk models. Sentinel quantifies their threat — in dollars.

No commitment. First Shell Health Report free.

1.2M
Lethal Non-Trackable Objects
ESA MASTER-8.0.5 Reference
$450B+
Insured Satellite Assets
Global LEO/GEO fleet
1,000
Monte Carlo Iterations
Per conjunction event
EAL
Expected Annual Loss
Your actuarial north star

The Orbital Insurance Gap

You're pricing satellites
in the dark.

Traditional satellite insurance models were built when orbital debris was sparse and trackable. Today, the 1–10cm lethal non-trackable (LNT) population outnumbers tracked objects 22-to-1. They can't be avoided. They can't be seen. They can only be priced.

A single LNT impact generates 17,800+ new fragments — a Kessler cascade that devalues every asset in the same orbital shell. That externalized risk is currently unpriced across your entire book.

Sentinel closes that gap. Every analysis produces a defensible EAL figure your syndicate can stand behind.

LNT objects in LEO (1–10cm)~1,200,000
Tracked objects in USSF catalog~54,000
Tracking ratio4.3%
Avg. CAM cost per avoidance maneuver$35,000
Fragments per LNT collision event17,800+
Annual CAM frequency (Starlink)~50,000

The Product

Sentinel Risk Engine

One platform. Three actuarially defensible outputs. Built for underwriters, brokers, and constellation operators.

Entry Point

Shell Health Report

Per-spacecraft Expected Annual Loss (EAL), Social Cost of Debris (SCOD), and Kessler cascade risk for any orbital shell. Defensible to Lloyd's and reinsurance syndicates.

$2,500 / spacecraft / yr or $500 one-time

Portfolio Analysis

Full constellation EAL with Probable Maximum Loss (PML), loss ratio, and actuarial loading. Multi-asset, multi-shell. Includes 6×6 covariance conjunction geometry.

$2,000 / portfolio run

ORB Simulator Access

Unlimited simulation runs against the full 1.2M LNT synthetic population. Calibrated to ESA MASTER-8.0.5. Subscription includes API access for programmatic integration.

$15,000 / yr
Mission Data Upload
Live Conjunction Feed
Report Downloads
MFA-Secured Portal

How It Works

Three steps to
actuarial truth.

01

Upload Constellation Parameters

Enter orbital elements (altitude, inclination, RAAN), spacecraft mass, cross-section, and asset valuation via our secure ingestion portal or REST API.

02

Sentinel Protocol Runs

Our GPU-accelerated engine sweeps 1.2M synthetic LNT objects against your constellation at 10-second resolution across the full policy period. 1,000 Monte Carlo iterations per conjunction event.

03

Receive Your Actuarial Report

Download a full-color branded EAL report: Expected Annual Loss, Probable Maximum Loss, loss ratio, conjunction log, Social Cost of Debris, and actuarial loading — ready for your syndicate.

Model Provenance

Reference ModelESA MASTER-8.0.5
Event KernelEKF/20240801 (660+ fragmentation events)
Propagation Epoch2026/02
Collision Probability2D Foster (SC-2D-FOSTER-1992) — 18th Space Squadron Best Practices, full 6×6 ECI covariance
Collision ScreenOrbital Path Intersection Screen (apogee/perigee range overlap)
Monte Carlo Runs1,000 iterations per event
LNT Population1,200,000 objects (ESA consensus)
V&V Status22/22 PASS — Phases 1–3 Complete
Protocol VersionSentinel V3.2.1
Classification

All reports generated at SPACE COWBOY PROPRIETARY / EAR99. Distribution authorized per terms of service. Available for upgrade to CUI//SP-CTI for U.S. Government contractor engagements.

Sample Output

What you receive.

Every analysis produces a full-color branded PDF report and live dashboard.

SCADRActuarial Orbital Intelligence Report // Sentinel V3.2.1
SPACE COWBOY PROPRIETARY // EAR99
Expected Annual Loss (EAL)
$2.47M
Actuarial North Star
Total Insured Value (TIV)
$4.2B
Portfolio asset valuation
Recommended Pure Premium
$3.09M
EAL × 1.25 actuarial loading
P99 Probable Max Loss
$847M
Tail-risk aggregate
ACTUARIAL STATEMENT // Based on analysis of 2,847 close approach events identified against the 1.2M Synthetic LNT population across an Active Threat Population of 66,250 objects over a 365-day policy period, the portfolio exhibits a loss ratio of 0.0588% against a Total Insured Value of $4.2B. The EAL of $2.47M reflects the probability-weighted mean financial consequence across all simulated conjunction events.

Pricing

Simple. Transparent.

One run. One decision. No subscription required to get started.

Spot Analysis
$500/ one-time run
  • Single Shell Health Report
  • EAL + loss ratio output
  • Conjunction event log
  • PDF report download
  • EAR99 classification
Get Started
Most Popular
Portfolio
$2,000/ portfolio run
  • Full constellation analysis
  • EAL + PML + SCOD
  • Per-asset risk attribution
  • Actuarial statement included
  • Branded PDF report
  • Dashboard access 30 days
Get Started
Subscription
$15,000/ year
  • Unlimited simulation runs
  • API access (REST)
  • Real-time conjunction feed
  • Multi-project management
  • Priority support
  • Custom branding on reports
Contact Sales

Volume pricing available for brokers and managing general agents. Contact us for syndicate licensing.

Customer Portal

Everything in one place.

Organization Management

Create your org, invite teammates, manage roles and permissions from a single admin interface.

Mission Data Upload

Upload constellation parameters directly. Supports Keplerian elements, NORAD CATIDs, and custom OMM formats.

Live Analysis Dashboard

Monitor runs in real-time. GPU utilization, progress indicators, and live conjunction event streaming.

Report Archive

Every analysis saved to your org archive. Download full-color PDF reports or access raw JSON data.

Project Management

Organize analyses by client, constellation, or policy period. Track run history and compare results.

MFA-Secured Access

TOTP multi-factor authentication on every account. Audit logs for all user actions. SOC 2-aligned access controls.

Start with a
free analysis.

Create an account, enter your first constellation, and receive a Shell Health Report — on us. No credit card required.

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